Thursday, May 18, 2006

Aftermath of Speech

I didn't put much faith in the initial reports of the speech Monday helping El Presidente. The the opinion-making conservative intelligentsia (the base-maker) wasn't happy with it and however elitist this sounds, that matters a lot. Compare to the Miers debacle; many Republicans and conservatives trusted the President's choice because they trusted the President. It took awhile for disastisfaction to percolate among the base, but it did. The conservative intelligentsia exposed the truth and the base shifted away from the President. Those loyalists, like Hewitt, looked pretty foolish by the end of that fiasco.

It's also important to note that even if the a majority of the American public prefers Bush's immigration proposal, this does not translate into Bush being more popular. He has alienated virtually all Democrats and most moderates. His base stayed with him very strongly until Miers (and to some extent, Katrina), but immigration is decimating his remaining support. Bush's poll numbers will continue to sink because a small and shrinking percent of Republicans support his immigration plan (as of today, it's 60%).

For Presidential approval ratings, I prefer Rasmussen's tracking poll (he was the most accurate in the 2004 Presidential election and his results were much more consistent). Kaus says that tommorrow's data will have him at 36%, a record low for this poll (a 3% drop from the day of the speech).

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